Old Farmer’s Almanac Thanksgiving 2026 Weather Forecast by Region

Thanksgiving Weather by Region: Selected Details

Northeast

Includes Caribou, Augusta, Burlington, Concord, and Albany. Rain may dampen outdoor activities around Thanksgiving, with a chance of snow in northern and high‑elevation areas. Chilly before and after the holiday, but temperatures are expected to be mild on Thanksgiving itself.

Atlantic Corridor

Includes Boston, Providence, Hartford, New York City, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington, D.C. Rain is expected on Thanksgiving, with mild temperatures reducing the need for heavy layering. Snow could appear in northern parts of the region over the weekend as temperatures cool.

Appalachians

Includes Elmira, Scranton, Harrisburg, Frederick, Roanoke, and Asheville. Snow showers are favored in the north and rain in the south during the week leading up to Thanksgiving. Thanksgiving itself looks sunny with warmer conditions, though flakes may return in the north over the weekend.

Southeast

Includes Raleigh, Columbia, Atlanta, and Savannah. Look for warm temperatures and showers around Thanksgiving, with a sunny but cooler weekend ahead.

Florida

Includes Jacksonville, Orlando, Tampa, and Miami. Expect sunshine giving way to showers on Thanksgiving, with pleasant temperatures overall and a return to sunnier skies for the weekend.

Lower Lakes

Includes Syracuse, Rochester, Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, Indianapolis, Chicago, and Milwaukee. Thanksgiving week features a mix of rain and snow and a cool, brisk feel. Plan for travel delays and cooler outdoor conditions.

Ohio Valley

Includes Pittsburgh, Charleston, Cincinnati, Louisville. Showers may give way to sunny skies in time for Thanksgiving, but temperatures are expected to be cooler at dinnertime.

Deep South

Includes Nashville, Tupelo, Montgomery, Mobile, New Orleans, Jackson, Shreveport, Little Rock. Thanksgiving looks sunny, with a cooler finish after a brief warm spell—bring a light layer for the evening.

Upper Midwest

Includes Marquette, Green Bay, Duluth, Minneapolis, International Falls. Expect flurries and snow showers with colder‑than‑normal temperatures; indoor gatherings may be more comfortable than outdoor celebrations.

Heartland

Includes St. Louis, Des Moines, Kansas City, Topeka, Omaha. Thanksgiving week will alternate between showers and sun, with temperatures cycling between cool and warm. Rain and chilly conditions prevail on Thanksgiving itself.

Texas–Oklahoma

Includes Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Oklahoma City. Southern Texas stays warm; northern Texas and Oklahoma enjoy sunshine and warmth, with a chance of showers in some areas.

High Plains

Includes Bismarck, Rapid City, Cheyenne, Denver, Billings. A colder‑than‑normal start may yield a bright finish, with sunny skies and very warm temperatures by Thanksgiving week.

Intermountain

Includes Salt Lake City, Grand Junction, Flagstaff, Spokane, Pendleton, Boise, Reno. Southern parts trend warmer with sunshine; northern parts may see intermittent rain showers.

Desert Southwest

Includes Albuquerque, El Paso, Tucson, Phoenix, Las Vegas. Expect abundant sunshine and warm temperatures near the end of November, ideal for holiday meals outdoors.

Pacific Northwest

Includes Seattle, Portland, Eugene. Expect rain and periods of heavy rainfall, with mild overall temperatures around Thanksgiving.

Pacific Southwest

Includes San Francisco, Fresno, Los Angeles, San Diego. Sunny skies prevail on Thanksgiving and the weekend; northern areas will be cooler than southern areas, which stay warmer.

Alaska

The panhandle can expect rain showers and milder temperatures, while the interior and southern regions face snow showers and colder conditions. Check local forecasts before planning holiday travel.

Hawaii

Isolated showers could interrupt Thanksgiving plans in some areas, but otherwise the state basks in mild temperatures and pleasant conditions for a holiday outdoor meal.

Check Your Local Thanksgiving Weather Forecast

The Old Farmer’s Almanac provides long‑range glimpses of Thanksgiving weather, but conditions can shift as the holiday nears. Before you travel, check the Almanac’s 5‑Day Weather Forecast for your area for updated local conditions, especially where rain or snow is possible.

For broader context, see the 2026–2027 Winter Weather Predictions to understand the season ahead and how regional patterns may evolve.

When to Expect the First Snow and the 2026–27 Winter Outlook

The Northeast region typically experiences measurable snowfall dates ranging from late October to late December, with many major cities seeing first measurable snow (0.1 inch) between mid‑November and mid‑December. For example, Erie, PA averages first measurable snow around November 9; Pittsburgh, PA around November 16; Allentown, PA around December 6; Kennedy Airport (New York), Newark, NJ around December 9; Wilmington, DE around December 17; and Philadelphia, PA around December 19. The Almanac’s Thanksgiving forecast shows snow chances around the holiday in several Northeast and Atlantic Corridor areas.

The Almanac’s broader 2026–27 winter outlook describes the pattern as mostly mild with pockets that are colder and snowier. In the southern Northeast and Appalachians, temperatures are expected to trend below normal with above‑normal snowfall. The Lower Lakes may run warmer than average with near‑to‑below normal snowfall, while the Atlantic Corridor looks milder with above‑normal temperatures and somewhat lower snowfall. The Appalachians are forecast to be colder than normal with above‑normal snowfall, and the snowiest periods are expected in mid‑January and again in early February. The Philadelphia and Atlantic Corridor appear mild overall, with snowfall timing concentrated in late November and mid‑January to late February.

How Accurate is The Old Farmer’s Almanac?

The Almanac itself states it correctly predicts the direction of seasonal temperature and precipitation departures about 80% of the time on average. While that speaks to patterns rather than each individual storm or cold snap, it provides a useful sense of reliability for planning purposes.

In recent history, the Almanac reports an 88.9% overall accuracy for the 2025–26 winter forecast, with 83.3% accuracy for temperature departure and 94.4% for precipitation departure. These figures reflect the Almanac’s own assessment of its forecasts.

Regional City Coverage

For travelers seeking location‑specific guidance, the Almanac’s regional pages list city coverage for each region. Examples include the Northeast’s Caribou, Augusta, Burlington, Concord, and Albany; the Atlantic Corridor’s Boston, Providence, Hartford, New York City, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington, D.C.; the Appalachians’ Elmira, Scranton, Harrisburg, Frederick, Roanoke, and Asheville; the Southeast’s Raleigh, Columbia, Atlanta, and Savannah; and other regions with similarly specific city lists. Use these lists to confirm whether your hometown is included in a region’s forecast.

Final Thought

Overall, Thanksgiving 2026 looks more typical than turbulent: cool and mostly dry in the East, mild and pleasant in much of the Southeast, with colder, snowier pockets in the Northeast and Appalachians. The Pacific Northwest faces wetter late‑fall conditions, while the Plains and Rockies may experience intermittent snow and colder air. This pattern is broadly favorable for many travelers, but regional nuances mean you should check local forecasts as Thanksgiving approaches.

For ongoing insight, explore the 2026–2027 Winter Weather Predictions and your regional long‑range forecast, and keep an eye on updates to plan travels and outdoor activities with greater confidence.

Further Information

The Almanac’s Thanksgiving forecasts and winter predictions are published in the 2027 edition (forecasts begin November 1, 2026). If you have questions about regional forecasts, contact the editorial team through the Almanac’s official channels.